What are the "Consequences of Climate Change"? To help us explore this question we viewed Part I of the documentary "Journey to Planet Earth - Plan B: Mobilizing to Save Civilization". This film is based on the United States environmentalist Lester Brown's book "World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse". Lester is founder of the Worldwatch Institute, and founder and president of the Earth Policy Institute, a nonprofit research organization based in Washington, D.C. BBC Radio commentator Peter Day calls him "one of the great pioneer environmentalists." He is the author or co-author of over 50 books on global environmental issues and his works have been translated into more than forty languages. The recipient of 26 honorary degrees and a MacArthur Fellowship, Brown has been described by the Washington Post as "one of the world's most influential thinkers."
We follow Lester on one of his worldwide Global Climate Change Speaking Tours. The environmental impacts of Global Climate are well known and Lester reflects on these while flying to speaking in China:
"Even if the currently moderate pace of emissions reduction steps up, the likelihood is that the Earth will be at least 3°C (4.8°F) warmer at the end of this century than it was at the start of the industrial revolution; less warming is possible, but so is more, and quicker. Heatwaves that now set records will become commonplace. Ecosystems will find themselves subject to climates far removed from those they evolved in, endangering many species. Rain will fall harder in the places where it falls today, increasing flooding; but in places already prone to drought things will by and large get drier, sometimes to the point of desertification. Ice will vanish from Arctic summers and some mountaintops, permafrost will become impermanent, sea levels will keep rising." - The Economist Magazine , November 25, 2010.
What troubles Lester and the reason for his tour is to discuss the Global Climate Change's geopolitical and geoeconomic consequences. In other words, how will humanity deal with these seemingly unavoidable changes?
His first stop was China. His talk focused on "Food Production" and the questionable ability of China being able to feed itself as a result of Global Climate Change". For the Chinese, this is a particularly touchy subject. They suffered a "Great Famine" between 1958 and 1961 as a result of natural disasters and poor governmental response that claimed the lives of nearly 50,000,000 people by starvation. In 2010, a severe drought in China caused widespread food and water shortages. The Chinese reaction to Lester's talk was to suggest it was the OECD or Developed Countries that must provide leadership and take the initiative to stop Global Climate Change. The Chinese are "Cash Rich" and can buy food from the global markets to make up their shortage. Indeed, in 2010 "Global Food Prices" dramatically increased as a result of the Chinese drought compounded by a similar drought in Russia and floods in Pakistan and Canada. In addition, the conversion of grain into fuel (Ethanol) for cars makes matters even worse. In recent years, 25% of US grain production has gone to Ethanol. Emerging countries have new and an ever increasing economic clout and power in "Global Food Markets".
This brings us to Lester's central point - Who suffers when food prices keep increasing and what happens? Can this result in catastrophic "Global Food Shortages" to the point where civilization itself is threatened? The simple answer is "Yes". Many past civilizations have collapsed because of "Food Shortages". Lester reviewed a few. The problem in front of humanity now is that our population is growing from 6,700,000,000 to 9,200,000,000 and more and more people will be able to live an "American Lifestyle" with a western diet and energy demands. It is simply unsustainable. Something has to give.
Those most susceptible are in the poorest countries now. They simply don't have the resources to keep up with the ever increasing "Food Prices". The result is and will be "Political and Social Unrest" causing, what Lester calls, "Failing States" and if it gets bad enough "Failed Human Civilization". It is interesting to note that this documentary film was completed before the unrest in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, and Syria. These countries have large populations living on less than $2.00 per day with majority populations under the age of 25. The recent increase in "Food Prices", due to the 2010 droughts in China and Russia as well as the floods in Pakistan and Canada, was a large factor in their revolts.
In Part II of II, we will examine what can be done to save "Human Civilization". Lester calls this Plan B because Plan A (our present method of operation) is simply not working.
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