The Consequences of Climate Change - Part II of II

Lester opened Part II by emphasizing that the costs of "Global Climate Change" are not accounted for in today's finance and economics.  The pumping of "Greenhouse Gasses" into the environment by corporations, governments, and individuals is unaccounted for.  It is simply "not-on-the-books".  It is not in the "Cost Accounting". We treat the atmosphere as a "Free Good".  "Global Climate Change", however, has economic ramifications - increased tropical storms, droughts, floods, heat waves, offshore oil spills, and species endangerment . These economic ramifications or costs should be reflected in our present finance and economics.  This reflection would encourage the move away from "Greenhouse Gas Production" and perhaps even preserve "Biodiversity" essential to future scientific research and development.

It is not known when we will reach the "Tipping Point".  This is the point in time where the effects "Global Climate Change" become irreversible and impervious.  We must then suffer the consequences. We will be incapable of stopping the changes.  Lester fears that the "Tipping Point" will not only be a sudden and continuing series of catastrophic events but that they will happen sooner rather than later. 

Plan B is the alternative to "Business-As-Usual".  There are four components:  1. Cut "Carbon Emissions" by 80% by 2020.  2. Stabilize population at no more than 8,000,000,000.  3. Eradicating poverty.  4. Restoring the earth's natural systems forests, soils, grasslands, acquirers, fisheries, etc.  This comprehensive integrated plan is ambitious and requires unprecedented leadership and cooperation among nations.  The documentary then examined each point in detail.

What can we do as individuals?  Lester says this is the question he is asked the most.  He said folks expect him to say things like recycle your newspapers and change your light bulbs.  The fact of the matter, however, is that the scope of the problem is so large that these kinds of activities are really just "Feel Good Activities" and have virtually no impact on the problem.  We are way passed simple solutions.  What is required is a restructuring of the "Global Economy".  He urges individuals to bind together to become "Politically Active" on all issues environmental.

After the documentary, our group discussion was decidedly negative.  The forces favoring the status quo are powerful and the changes required for Plan B are just overwhelmingly great.  In addition, some of the scientific facts Lester relied on in his arguments were incorrect.  Notably, the melting of the Himalayan Glaciers.  They are, in fact, stable and even growing in places.  It was our belief Plan B could never happen without some defining, undeniable, catastrophic environmental event requiring the world to act.  When, and if, that happened it would probably be on the other side of the "Tipping Point".  The group's conclusion was for each of us to prepare ourselves and our children for the consequences of "Global Climate Change".  It appears inevitable.

The Consequences of Climate Change - Part I of II

What are the "Consequences of Climate Change"?  To help us explore this question we viewed Part I of the documentary "Journey to Planet Earth - Plan B:  Mobilizing to Save Civilization".  This film is based on the United States environmentalist Lester Brown's book "World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse".  Lester is founder of the Worldwatch Institute, and founder and president of the Earth Policy Institute, a nonprofit research organization based in Washington, D.C. BBC Radio commentator Peter Day calls him "one of the great pioneer environmentalists."  He is the author or co-author of over 50 books on global environmental issues and his works have been translated into more than forty languages.  The recipient of 26 honorary degrees and a MacArthur Fellowship, Brown has been described by the Washington Post as "one of the world's most influential thinkers."  

We follow Lester on one of his worldwide Global Climate Change Speaking Tours.  The environmental impacts of Global Climate are well known and Lester reflects on these while flying to speaking in China:

"Even if the currently moderate pace of emissions reduction steps up, the likelihood is that the Earth will be at least 3°C (4.8°F) warmer at the end of this century than it was at the start of the industrial revolution; less warming is possible, but so is more, and quicker. Heatwaves that now set records will become commonplace. Ecosystems will find themselves subject to climates far removed from those they evolved in, endangering many species. Rain will fall harder in the places where it falls today, increasing flooding; but in places already prone to drought things will by and large get drier, sometimes to the point of desertification. Ice will vanish from Arctic summers and some mountaintops, permafrost will become impermanent, sea levels will keep rising." - The Economist Magazine , November 25, 2010.

What troubles Lester and the reason for his tour is to discuss the Global Climate Change's geopolitical and geoeconomic consequences.  In other words, how will humanity deal with these seemingly unavoidable changes?

His first stop was China.  His talk focused on "Food Production" and the questionable ability of China being able to feed itself as a result of Global Climate Change".  For the Chinese, this is a particularly touchy subject.  They suffered a "Great Famine" between 1958 and 1961 as a result of natural disasters and poor governmental response that claimed the lives of nearly 50,000,000 people by starvation.  In 2010, a severe drought in China caused widespread food and water shortages.  The Chinese reaction to Lester's talk was to suggest it was the OECD or Developed Countries that must provide leadership and take the initiative to stop Global Climate Change.  The Chinese are "Cash Rich" and can buy food from the global markets to make up their shortage.  Indeed, in 2010 "Global Food Prices" dramatically increased as a result of the Chinese drought compounded by a similar drought in Russia and floods in Pakistan and Canada.  In addition, the conversion of grain into fuel (Ethanol) for cars makes matters even worse.  In recent years, 25% of US grain production has gone to Ethanol.  Emerging countries have new and an ever increasing economic clout and power in "Global Food Markets".

This brings us to Lester's central point - Who suffers when food prices keep increasing and what happens?  Can this result in catastrophic "Global Food Shortages" to the point where civilization itself is threatened?  The simple answer is "Yes".  Many past civilizations have collapsed because of "Food Shortages".  Lester reviewed a few.  The problem in front of humanity now is that our population is growing from 6,700,000,000 to 9,200,000,000 and more and more people will be able to live an "American Lifestyle" with a western diet and energy demands.  It is simply unsustainable.  Something has to give.

Those most susceptible are in the poorest countries now.  They simply don't have the resources to keep up with the ever increasing "Food Prices".  The result is and will be "Political and Social Unrest" causing, what Lester calls, "Failing States" and if it gets bad enough "Failed Human Civilization".  It is interesting to note that this documentary film was completed before the unrest in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, and Syria.  These countries have large populations living on less than $2.00 per day with majority populations under the age of 25.  The recent increase in "Food Prices", due to the 2010 droughts in China and Russia as well as the floods in Pakistan and Canada, was a large factor in their revolts.

In Part II of II, we will examine what can be done to save "Human Civilization".  Lester calls this Plan B because Plan A (our present method of operation) is simply not working.

Connecting With Others - Digitally and Virtually

At the end of our "Happiness" discussion, it was noted that digital communication tends to be impersonal and the sound of another's voice as well as face-to-face communication was essential to "Connecting With Others".  How true is this?  

"Face-to-Face" communication and even interactive voice communication is becoming less and less common as we relate to one another digitally and virtually. Our communication options are now many.  In 1970, the futurist Alvin Toffler wrote a book titled "Future Shock".  Future Shock, he explained, is a bewildering and disorienting psychological state produced in individuals and in whole societies due to the impacts of technological change coming fast in short periods of time combined with the difficulty and necessity to keep up with the change not to mention information overload.  Most of us are immersed in technology all the time at work and play. 

As a basis for discussion, we watched the Frontline presentation "Digital Nation".  Here is a summary:

The show opened with a mother of three speaking into the camera.  She was preparing supper for her family and observed them at the table - father with laptop, oldest child with laptop, and two smaller ones with handheld entertainment devices.  Each person was fully engaged and involved in their own separate world.  She wondered aloud about her family's cohesiveness.  

The scene shifts to MIT with students using computers and smart phones continuously to multi-task.  Teachers offer comments about how challenging it is and how they have had to change their teaching style to accommodate students who pay only partial attention to what they are in class to learn. One professor states his pop quizzes reveal his students are getting grades of 75% on material they should easily get 100% on.  He says they are constantly distracted.  Another quick scene shift takes us to Stanford University where researchers are evaluating multitasks.  Their conclusion is that students are very poor at every aspect of multi-tasking regardless of what the individual multitasker may think of their proficiency.  The constant distraction results in a disorganized memory and poor analytic reasoning.  The researchers worry we are creating people who are unable to think well and clearly. 

The workplace is rewarding those who are fluent in technology, excellent at communications, and effective problem solvers.  These will be and are the high earners.  Those with lesser skills will simply earn less and have a lower standard of living.  The show moves to a NYC middle school where technology is completely integrated into the teaching methods.  Performance at this school has improved dramatically since the introduction of technology.  The students are simply more engaged in the overall learning process and readily accept the challenges the technology presents.  The principal remarks that technology is akin to oxygen for the students.

There is controversy here.  Prof. Mark Bauerlein of Emory University wrote a book titled "The Dumbest Generation".  He contends that as students get older and engage in more and more technological multi-tasking their reading and writing skills deteriorate.  Others contend that the old ways of expressing ourselves, as measured by the old ways, are evolving into something else - a different way of communicating.  Print replaced an oral culture and the book developed.  The book will give way to the next thing.  It's simply evolution.  

The program moved on to virtual connections people can make through gaming and offered World of Warcraft as an example.  In this game, folks can live virtually with others and have a unique, rich, rewarding, and addictive experience.  Living virtually is not limited to gaming.  IBM uses it for business meetings and work groups.  Researchers have found that virtual living produces the same emotional responses as real life and that young children will believe, after a short lapse of time, their virtual experiences were real.

The American Military has taken this concept a step further and put a Drone Aircraft into the field with the Pilot remotely located in the USA.  They have also established Recruiting Centers featuring War Gaming for potential Recruits to use to get a sense of battle.  

Technology is changing us.  We are losing some things and gaining others.  How we will change is up to us and the values we have as humans.

Happiness Part III of III

The January 26th, 2011 "Oprah" show provided us with a terrific review.  We not only had lots of laughs but we learned a few new things.  Oprah opened the show with an interview of comedic actress, film director, and producer Goldie Hawn.  Goldie will be 66 years of age this year.  She has partnered with Kurt Russell for the past 28 years.  She is the mother of actress Kate Hudson and grandmother of 3.  Goldie was raised in a Presbyterian/Jewish household and calls herself a Jewish-Buddhist.  She is founder of the "Hawn Foundation" which teaches "Meditation Techniques" to 4th through 7th Graders.

As part of the show, we visited the "Happiest Town in America".  It is not Franklin and it is not in Massachusetts!  It is San Lois Obispo, California - A really cool place!

Here's the "Happiness Quiz" with responses following the questions:

1.  Do you consider yourself "Happy"?  Yes or No

2.  Do you think "Happiness" is Genetic?  Yes or No

3.  Do you make time in your day for "Complete Silence"?  Yes or No

4.  How often do you have sex?  Every Day or Once a Week or Once a Month or I can't remember the last time.

5.  Does having children make people happier?  Yes or No

6  How well do you know your neighbors?  I know all my neighbors or I know some of my neighbors or I don't know any neighbors?

7.  Which is the "Happiest Job" in America?  Travel Agent or Clergy or Special Education Teacher or Firefighter

8.  If you had more money, would you be happier?  Yes or No or Makes no difference



Responses to the "Happiness Quiz":

1.  Studio Audience Yes: 93% ;  No: 7%

According to a recent Gallup Poll of Americans:  57% Happy;  40% Trying to be happy;  3% Are suffering

2.  Studio Audience:  Yes: 32%;  No 68%

See Happiness Part II for a more complete answer including the "Happiness Set Point" but up to 50% of "Happiness" is Genetic.

3.  Studio Audience:  Yes: 29%;  No 71%

A Harvard University study showed that sitting for as little as 10 minutes a day increases "Happiness".

4.  Studio Audience:  Every Day: 2%;  Once a week: 50%;  Once a month: 20%;  Can't remember last time: 27%

This question and the responses produced a whole lot of giggling as well as some howls of laughter from both the studio audience and our discussion group.  Everybody wanted the 2% people to identify themselves but they remained anonymous.  The point of this question relates to the production of the hormone "Oxytocin".  Our discussion group was first introduced to this hormone in our study of our relationships with "Dogs".  Please see our "Dog" Post for a more complete discussion.

5.  Studio Audience:  Yes: 72%;  No 28%

The response to this question is quite complex. It was briefly mentioned in our Part I film documentary and touched on in our Post.  Generally, it is tough being a parent and expensive (average $250,000+ per child).  In addition, many are unprepared and surprised by all that it takes to be a parent.  On the other hand, there are lots of rewards and joys.  Research studies have shown that parents are happiest when their children turn 18 years of age and it keeps improving from there. It's no surprise that grandparents are the happiest.   Parenting, no surprise again, is hardest on women (equivalent to a second job) and especially difficult for working women.  It was mentioned that having children to improve a troubled relationship usually results in an even more troubled relationship. 

6.  Studio Audience:  All: 26%;  Some: 65%;  None: 9%

In general, the more neighbors you know the happier and safer you'll feel.  Research studies have found that having a happy neighbor increases your "Happiness" by 34%.

7.  Studio Audience:  Travel Agent: 27%;  Clergy 7%;  Special Ed. Teacher: 54%;  Firefighter: 12%

The answer is they ALL are the happiest jobs in America.  Studies show that these jobs offer a great deal of "Social Interaction".  It is believed this is the reason why they are among the happiest jobs.  Related to this question is commuting time and where one lives.  Research has found that commuting 1 hour or more each way subtracts significantly from "Happiness".  Indeed, a 1 hour commute can only be offset by an approximate increase of $40,000 in annual salary.  The single most important contributive factor for "Happiness" is where one lives.

8.  Studio Audience:  Yes: 68%;  No:15%;  Makes no difference: 17%

On average in the USA, "Happiness" max's out at about $75,000 for a family of four.  Massachusetts, of course, has the third highest cost of living in the nation so our figure would be higher.  Our discussion group felt $100,000 is a better number for our area.  At this number and higher, experiences now become the determining "Happiness" factor and not more money. See the Part I "Happiness" Post for a more complete discussion of money and "Happiness".  Another interesting point - Joining a club that makes you show up at least once a month has the same "Happiness" impact as doubling ones income.  The reason:  Social Connections.

Happiness Part II of III

Some Highlights:


Part II began with the case study of William Moyers - son of legendary journalist Bill Moyers. William grew up under ideal circumstances but it still wasn't enough. He turned to mood and mind altering self medication with Drugs and Alcohol and eventually to Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) after hitting rock bottom. Since Alcohol is legal and deeply ingrained in our culture, many people become "Dependent" (8%) and another 5% drift further into the category of "Abusive". The effects of Alcoholic "Dependence" and "Abuse" are devastating to the individual, their families, loved ones, and to society. AA is a peer based support group that offers daily meetings in just about every city and town in the nation. Social Support or Fellowship is the key to AA's success and this was the point of the case study. Social interaction and support are key elements to attaining and retaining "Happiness".


Stephen Rowell was Dr. Gilbert's next case study subject. Steve suffered a great misfortune - A balcony collapsed. He would have been safe but for another individual's desperate grab. Steve suffers from nerve damage, debilitating seizures, and relentless emotional distress especially paralyzing anger. With the help of a Therapist and a five week class helping him to detach from an unproductive negative point of view, Steve alleviated his stress and anger. The key was "Forgiveness" - a letting go of the desire for revenge and ill-will toward the one(s) that have wronged you. The result for the forgiving individual is a great reduction in depression, stress, anxiety, and anger, as well as greater physical improvements, and more hopefulness. The ability to forgive is essential to "Happiness" since an unforgiving psychological and emotional attitude is effective at blocking the opportunity to achieve "Happiness".


Dr. Gilbert now turned his attention to another important element related to "Happiness" - our personal strengths. This is the realm of "Positive Psychology" where we focus and capitalize on our strengths. The basic idea revolves around character development by identifying one's strengths and then using them over and over again thereby improving not only them but also one's confidence and self-esteem. The resulting individual's psychology and emotional grounding is more solid and capable; subsequently, better equipped to handle challenges. This technique, requiring more scientific research and testing, seems to improve the individual and contributes significantly to their "Happiness". West Point employs "Positive Psychology" technique training for their cadets. A case study was also presented regarding a person undergoing long term unemployment.


Maintaining well-being is crucial to "Happiness" and Meditation seems to be an excellent technique to partially accomplish this. Meditation is a mental exercise that strengthens the capacity to remain connected to the present moment of experience. It does this by strengthening and stabilizing one's attention. Researchers are continuing to document evidence that Meditation has positive effect's on health and well-being. There is much more research to be done. A case study of an individual undergoing cancer therapy was presented.


Social Relationships - Family, Friends, Lovers, Community are critical to "Happiness". The closer the relationship the more critical it is. The case study involved a husband and wife who lost their 18 year old daughter to the West Virginia Tech. shooter. These parents suffer an incalculable grief and found a way to channel that grief into a positive consequence by dedicating themselves to a passionate cause their daughter championed. By incorporating college students in their cause and the social relationships thus established, both with the students and the beneficiaries of their altruism, enabled them to heal and achieve a sense of normality.


The Framingham Heart Study formed the basis of Dr. Gilbert's next point. It contains 6 decades worth of data on over 15,000 people. When researchers analyzed this data with regard to the social networking aspect of "Happiness", they discovered that "Happiness" may be as contagious as the "Common Cold". It can actually travel from person-to-person and farther than anyone previously imagined. In fact, our "Happiness" depends, in part, on whole clusters of people we don't even know. The degree of "Happiness" a person conveys is extended as far as our friend's-friend's-friend and affects their emotional state at least in part. We are the most social animal on the planet and "Happiness" is like a contagious connecting thread.


A surprising result of scientific research is that "Happiness" increases as we get older. The caveat being acceptable health. There is a graphical "U-bend" to "Age" and "Happiness". When we start out on adult life, we are on average, pretty cheerful. Things go downhill from youth to middle age until they reach a nadir commonly known as the "Mid-Life Crisis". As we move towards old age, we lose things - vitality, mental sharpness, and looks. We gain, however, what we spend our lives pursuing: "Happiness".

Happiness Part I of III

The Announcement -

This Sunday (1/23) and the next (1/30) "Exploring Thought Provoking, 
Stimulating, and Challenging Questions" will delve into "Happiness".  Are you 
"Happy"?  Would more money make you happier?  How much more?  Is "Happiness" 
fleeting?  Does it come and go or can you just stay in it?  Why is it that what 
makes us "Happy" today can make us sad tomorrow?  How does pleasure fit in with 
"Happiness" and how does age fit in? What about gender?

It's a desire we all share - To lead a rich, fulfilling, and happy life.  We 
search for "Happiness".  It even has a history that can be summarized as follows 
- 

Happiness= Luck (Homeric)
Happiness=Virtue (Classical)
Happiness=Heaven (Medieval)
Happiness=Pleasure (Enlightenment)
Happiness=A Warm Puppy (Contemporary)

Some countries have developed a Gross National Happiness Index that is used to 
formulate policy.  Scientists, Clinicians, Sages, and Self-Help Gurus are all 
trying to help us find it.  It just may be in the Cook Room, 11:30 AM.

Your Hosts,

Bob Evans, Diane Mace Kinner, Mike Metcalf

Happiness Part 1 - Some Highlights

We approached "Happiness" by viewing the first half of Dr. Daniel Gilbert's documentary "Rethinking Happiness".  Dr. Gilbert is a Social Psychologist and Professor of Psychology at Harvard University.  He is an author and has won numerous awards for his research and teaching.  Dr. Gilbert makes the point, early on, that the human life is an emotional roller coaster with "ups-and-downs".  He emphasized that, for the past few decades and on a global scale, science has brought its discipline to study these "ups-and-downs" so as to understand not only the psychological state we call "Happiness" but how it is attained and retained. 

We'll define "Happiness" as a psychological and emotional state characterized by a freedom from suffering, a contentment with a sense of well being, joy, prosperity, and pleasure. Science has found that 'Happy People" have better health, better relationships, better sex lives, better careers, and better just about everything else.  In addition, scientific studies have found that "Married People" are, on average, happier than other people.  Parents are no happier than non-parents and are often less happy.  Researchers have determined there are three basic sources of happiness: genetics including our temperament and personality (50%); life circumstances such as wealth and health (10%); and our own choices (40%).  Scientists believe each of us has a "Happiness Set Point".  This is a state of "Happiness" we naturally revert to over time after experiencing the inevitable "ups-and-downs" of life.  This "Set Point" is different for each individual.

Dr. Gilbert presented a series of "Case Studies".  The first was concerned with "Money and Happiness".  He chose John Falcon as his subject.  John was a struggling performance artist living in one of the poorest boroughs of NYC and one paycheck from homelessness when he won $45,000,000 in the New York Sate Lottery.  Needless to say, everything changed for John.  In the course of reviewing John's case, he said something that impacted and stayed with us - "Being happy takes work.  You have to work at it."   This reminded me of something I heard a rather wealthy person once say - "You know, the real benefit of having lots of money is that you can be miserable, comfortably."  Here's the bottom line on money:  Coming out of poverty, additional money increases "Happiness".  However, if you already have lots of money then more money will not make you any happier.  It makes a difference where one starts from.  Every dollar attained buys a little less "Happiness" than the preceding one.  In addition, money must be spent properly.  Studies of "Lottery Winners" reveals this generally means sharing the wealth with family, friends, and community.  Due to "Hedonic Adaptation", the buying of "Stuff" to increase "Happiness" just leads to the buying of more "Stuff" and, in the end, doesn't increase "Happiness".  

The next two case studies involved "Resilience".  This is the human capacity to withstand traumatic and stressful experiences.  People who are resilient draw on strengths in themselves, their relationships, and their communities to help them overcome adversity. Resilient people often find meaning even in times of trouble and gain confidence from overcoming adversity. In this way, resilience can contribute to a deeply satisfying life.  The lesson here is clear - "Never Give Up!".  The second case study about an Air Force Pilot shot down over North Vietnam and imprisoned, tortured, and finally released after seven years was most instructive.  This individual endured the ordeal and emerged whole.  Dr. Gilbert mentioned that studies involving imprisoned individuals from this era revealed that their imprisonment experiences were of such value to them that they would not trade them for relative peace.  It was their belief that what they learned about themselves, during the imprisoned experience, was invaluable and enhanced their remaining years.

Two other case studies were introduced and will be concluded in next week's program.  Their purpose was to illustrate the stress and anxiety impact upon "Happiness" and how to successfully manage it.  The first involves an individual experiencing unemployment and the second cancer.  

To conclude Part I, we watched an interview with "Dr. Phil" and an overview of the "Self Help Industry".  Dr. Phil is in the entertainment business.  He uses the therapist's couch to entertain a television audience.  His advice and assistance is valuable to those on his couch but must not be generalized.  Dr. Phil cautioned about generalizing his advice.  He said the viewing audience could take a point or two for discussion with their therapist but to get more than that out of his show would be too much.  The "Self Help Industry" focuses on arranging our thinking to improve our lives.  Dr. Gilbert pointed out that almost all of this advice (95%) is scientifically untested.  Some of the many books in this marketplace are good and others are quite bad.  It's a "Buyer-Beware" situation at the moment until science can catch up to it.  Despite this fact, approximately 75% of those who successfully change without professional help do so through "Self Help" and on their own.  It is a major pathway for human development and growth.  

Welcome Fellow Explorers

Welcome to the "Exploring Thought Provoking, Stimulating, and Challenging Questions" Blog.  I hope you find it informative, fun, and interesting.  

The purpose of this Blog is to enable folks to participate in our "Sunday After Services Discussion Series" without having to attend the group meeting. Many people, for various reasons, cannot attend "Sunday After Services" yet are very interested in the topics and our discussions.  Toward that end, this Blog will present both information and opinion on the topics we explore.  Comments are encouraged.